Sunday Psephology
Posted by ~Ray @ 2008-11-13 12:35:00
I’ve made no secret of my support for Ron Paul for President. I’m going to try to give you where I think he stands in relation to the pack in the upcoming primaries. But let me be honest — I think there is too much exuberance out there amongst his supporters. They have bathed themselves in all things Paul and therefore have lost some perspective. The Republicans have completed the transition to warmongering party and they really really don’t want Paul to be their nominee. The odds are still long and oh how I wish I was wrong.
Emotional devastation means that all these wonderful energized people just walk away — despite the fact that they’ve accomplished something tremendous and have the ability to over the next few years change the political landscape if they’d just stay together
This is another reason I hate partisan electoral politics. It’s too personality/event driven. Lots of hype; but then a hangover. All this effort and time could be virtually for naught.
With some embarrassment. I admit to being a former political science major. I’ve used my limited skills here (and will not share my secret methodology) to read the polls (psephology) and extrapolate where the candidates really are.
Here’s the only hint I’ll give. Some polls are worth cow dung yet some sights and media outlets are acting as if they are gospel. One must check the methodology and even then one must not rely any one polling outlet. Let’s start with the national ranking.
Comment: By February 11 four of these candidates will have definitely quit the race (one or two of the four will be Giuliani and/or McCain) and the likely nominee will be apparent.
1 Huckabee 27 (+1 from last week)2 Romney 25 (-1 from last week)3 Giuliani 12 (-1)4 Thompson 10 (same)5 Paul 8 (+2)6 McCain 6 (same)
Comment: At this point I think Paul will overtake Thompson. By Christmas a major national poll will have him in double digits. Romney will go up in polling here because of his speech which was targeted at Iowa Christian Republicans.
1 Romney 34 (same as last week)2 Giuliani 15 (-2 from last week)3 McCain 16 (same)4 Paul 10 (+1) & Huckabee 10 (+4)6 Thompson 4 (same)
Comment: Second and Third Place are wide open here but Thompson won’t earn Place or Show. Romney’s speech didn’t help him in New Hampshire and may end up hurting him. Giving the speech was short-sighted in that Romney was really only fighting to defeat Huckabee in Iowa.
1 Huckabee 19 (+8)2 Thompson 18 (same)3 Romney 17 (-2 from last week)4 Giuliani 12 (+1)5 McCain 10 (same)6 Paul 8 (-2)
Comment: Romney was leading last week and the Huckster was in 4th. Thompson is polling well here but his poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire will kill his support. Thompson drops out shortly thereafter.
1 Giuliani 31 (-1 from last week)2 Romney 15 (same) & Huckabee 15 (+1)3 McCain 11 (-1)5 Thompson 10 (same)6 Paul 6 (same)
Comment: Will Giuliani be out of money and momentum by the time they get to the Sunshine State? I think so. He might fall to third here by Primary Day. California. Pennsylvania etc.
My prediction—offered for the first time anywhere you lucky ducks—is that like 1996 when Buchanan won New Hampshire the party panics at the rise of Huckabee. Romney or both and rallies behind whoever else seems strongest to avoid a disastrous national drag at the top of the ticket.
Giuliani seems to be 2008’s Dole [albeit with a chance of actually winning] but there always seems to be another skeleton ready to drop from Rudy’s closet. If one does it’s likely McCain who looks better and more like a Republican every day.[ADVERTHERE]Related article:
http://positiveliberty.com/2007/12/sunday-psephology.html
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